USMCA 2026 Review: risks and opportunities for the Mexican automotive supply chain

By María José Gamba Santibañez | Ground Transportation

The Mexican automotive industry is at a key moment. With the upcoming USMCA review scheduled for July 2026, companies participating in the automotive value chain face a scenario full of challenges and also possibilities. According to a recent analysis by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), the review could redefine the terms of the agreement and, therefore, strongly affect the automotive sector in Mexico.CSIS

Changes in rules of origin and their impact

One of the main concerns for Mexican manufacturers and suppliers is therule of originof the USMCA. Currently, vehicles must have a significant percentage of regional content to qualify for preferential tariffs. In the automotive sector, this is already generating effects: a report by the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) concluded that although the rules benefited suppliers in the U.S., they also increased costs and affected some production volumes.CBT News

For Mexico, this means that autoparts manufacturers and assemblers must prepare for requirements to become stricter or for greater supervision of Asian origin in components. This could imply substantial changes in the regional supply chain.

Opportunities in the face of nearshoring and regional integration

Despite the challenges, the USMCA review also brings opportunities for Mexico. With the rise of:

• nearshoring
• foreign direct investment
• reconfiguration of value chains

Mexican companies are in a good position to take advantage of their proximity to the United States and their logistical integration. As a study by the Wilson Center mentions, the 2026 review can become aturning pointthat consolidates North America as a competitive manufacturing block against Asia.Wilson Center+1

If the rules are adjusted favorably, Mexico could receive new flows of automotive investment, attract Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers, and strengthen its autoparts ecosystem.

Risks to keep in mind

However, there are several imminent risks for the sector in Mexico:

• If the United States demands higher minimums of national content (for example, raising the percentage of automotive parts made in North America), some Mexican operations could lose competitiveness.Baker Institute+1
• A long or complex renegotiation process could generate uncertainty for investors and delay key decisions.Brookings
• Tensions surrounding China and Asian trade could indirectly affect the regional automotive industry, especially if greater barriers are imposed on components imported from Asia or the transshipment rules are revised.Foley & Lardner LLP

Tips for Mexican automotive companies

For companies in the automotive sector in Mexico to be prepared for the USMCA review in 2026, here are some strategic tips:

1. Map the current supply chain: Identify what percentage of components comes from outside of North America and evaluate alternatives within the region.
2. Invest in local Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers: Increasing the depth of the national value chain improves compliance with rules of origin and reduces vulnerability.
3. Optimize logistics and customs processes: Better cargo visibility, traceability, and regulatory compliance will be essential to adapt to possible changes.
4. Monitor the regulatory and political environment: Being aware of the USMCA negotiations, possible changes in rules of origin, and the position of the United States will help anticipate risks.
5. Take advantage of Mexican logistics and infrastructure incentives: Mexico offers industrial platforms for automotive, as well as free trade agreements and treaties that can favor costs and competitiveness.

Preparing for 2026 and beyond

The road to 2026 is a window of opportunity to strengthen automotive manufacturing in Mexico. Companies that act now, strengthen their value chain, and adapt their logistics will be better positioned to benefit when the USMCA review is finalized.

The review of the agreement is not just a bureaucratic procedure: it is a crossroads that could define the future of the North American automotive industry. Mexico can win or lose; the difference will be proactivity, preparation, and strategic vision.

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