US Elections: How Will They Affect Mexico and the Logistics Sector?

Elections 2024 Everything You Need to Know The presidential election in the U.S. between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a crucial topic for Mexico, as the result will impact areas such as migration, trade, and security, issues of high impact on the relationship between both countries. However, another essential aspect that doesn't always receive attention is logistics. Given the close link between the U.S. and Mexican economies, the result of this election could also have profound repercussions for cross-border trade and logistics. Here we explore some of the potential impacts that a Harris or Trump administration could have on these key aspects. Trade and Logistics Under a Kamala Harris Administration A Kamala Harris victory would represent, to a large extent, the continuity of Joe Biden's policies in the U.S. For Mexico, this would imply a commercial relationship structured around the USMCA, the free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Harris has expressed her commitment to maintaining cooperation with Mexico, especially on human rights and migration control issues. In logistics terms, a Harris administration would likely continue supporting the expansion of integrated supply chains in North America. This would benefit Mexico, where many U.S. companies outsource manufacturing and assembly processes due to proximity and USMCA advantages. Stability and investments in logistics infrastructure could be favored, as Harris would prioritize maintaining the bilateral relationship on good terms, fostering investments in infrastructure and developing transport corridors that facilitate cross-border trade. Harris's environmental agenda could also drive the shift toward cleaner technologies in transportation and logistics. This could mean incentives and subsidies for adopting electric transport fleets and improvements in sustainable logistics systems. Mexico, in turn, would have the opportunity to align its logistics and environmental practices, optimizing more efficient and sustainable transport routes, and meeting emissions reduction goals. Trade and Logistics Under a Donald Trump Administration On the other hand, a Donald Trump victory could mark a more abrupt change in trade and logistics relations. In his previous administration, Trump promoted "America First" policies, including a review of trade agreements and the imposition of tariffs to protect U.S. manufacturing. This time, he has proposed imposing additional tariffs on products manufactured in Mexico that contain Chinese inputs. For the logistics sector, this would mean an increase in costs and a probable need to modify routes and suppliers to avoid these tariffs. Additionally, Trump has suggested the possibility of renegotiating certain aspects of the USMCA. This could bring uncertainty to logistics, as Mexican companies would have to quickly adapt to regulatory changes or possible export restrictions. Logistics companies in Mexico, especially those dependent on cross-border trade, could be forced to redesign their operations, find alternative routes, or explore markets outside the U.S. to mitigate risks. Another aspect that would affect logistics under a Trump administration is migration. During his first term, Trump pressured Mexico to act as a de facto "safe third country," resulting in greater militarization of borders and increased surveillance. If he decides to implement similar policies in a second term, migratory and transport flows in border regions could face more delays and obstacles. Logistics Impact: Between Stability and Protectionism Under Harris, logistics chains would have a more predictable and stable environment, allowing for long-term planning. With Trump, on the other hand, logistics would face a greater risk of instability and unforeseen costs due to possible trade barriers and a more protectionist approach. As logistics adjusts to unstable U.S. foreign policy, Mexican logistics companies could consider adapting to growing pressure to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and avoid dependencies on imported inputs. Additionally, in both cases, Mexico has the opportunity to improve its logistics infrastructure to be better prepared for any change in the relationship with the U.S. Conclusion The result of the 2024 U.S. elections will profoundly affect the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico in key areas such as security, trade, and migration. For the logistics sector, the difference between a Harris or Trump administration represents a world of stability or possible barriers. In a global context where geopolitical risks are rising, Mexican logistics must anticipate and adapt to maintain its competitiveness and guarantee the constant flow of goods between both countries.