The Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Which Mexican Products Will Become More Expensive?

The tariffs that Donald Trump's government plans to impose on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China could have a significant effect on the economy and trade. Among the most affected products are essential foods, machinery, electronics, and even fuels. This cost increase will not only affect American consumers but will also impact companies' supplier chains and the Mexican economy. Foods at Risk: More Expensive Guacamole One of Mexico's most representative products, avocado, faces a possible price increase due to the 25% tariffs. Currently, 90% of avocados consumed in the United States come from Mexico, meaning that the costs of this product, along with lime and tomato, essential in Mexican gastronomy, could skyrocket. In addition to avocado, other agricultural products that are part of the basic basket in the U.S. could also become more expensive. Mexico exports large volumes of onions, lettuce, strawberries, melons, and peppers, representing 31% of agricultural products imported by the United States. This will not only impact consumers but also supermarkets and restaurants that depend on these inputs. Automotive Industry: The Most Affected Mexico is a fundamental pillar in automobile production in North America. With the Treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (USMCA), the automotive industry has grown and integrated strongly in the three countries. However, tariffs could significantly increase production and assembly costs. Manufacturers like General Motors and Stellantis have established plants in Mexico, exporting hundreds of thousands of vehicles to the U.S. The imposition of tariffs could make car and component prices rise considerably, affecting the sector's competitiveness and demand in the American market. Appliances and Electronics: An Imminent Increase Electronic products manufactured in Mexico will also be hit by the new tariffs. Items such as computers, refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, and televisions are part of the list of affected goods. In 2022, computers represented 8.7% of Mexico's total exports to the United States, showing the magnitude of the impact that tariffs could have on this sector. On the other hand, products from China, such as cell phones, electric batteries, and toys, will also see a price increase. This will not only make life more expensive for American consumers but could also generate changes in global demand for these products. Construction and Energy: An Additional Concern The construction sector in the U.S. could also be severely affected. Lumber, which already has a 14.5% tariff, could see an effective increase of up to 40%. This would increase construction costs and affect reconstruction plans after natural disasters. Regarding energy, oil and its derivatives from Canada could experience a 10% increase, which would directly impact gasoline prices in the U.S. Midwest and even electricity rates in some states. A Generalized Economic Impact Beyond the increase in specific products, economists warn that these trade measures could generate sustained inflation in the U.S. and more severely affect low-income families. According to a study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, these tariffs could represent an additional cost of $1,200 annually per household. For Mexico, the impact will not only be reflected in a possible reduction in exports but also in the stability of key industries such as automotive, manufacturing, and agro-food. Uncertainty about whether these tariffs will be permanent generates concern among businesspeople and economists, who seek alternatives to mitigate the negative effects of these protectionist policies. What Should We Consider? The imposition of tariffs by the Trump government not only represents a challenge for consumers and companies in the U.S. but also puts Mexico's economic stability at risk. Key sectors such as agro-industry, manufacturing, and automotive will face higher costs, which could translate into less competitiveness and a decrease in demand for Mexican products in the American market. Given this scenario, it is crucial that Mexico seeks to diversify its exports and strengthen its domestic market to face this new commercial challenge.