Problems in the Sky? Air Tension Between the U.S. and Mexico

The relationship between the United States and Mexico, often complex and multifaceted, has opened a new front of tension: the aviation sector. Recently, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has announced a series of significant restrictions against Mexican airlines, a measure that arises as retaliation to decisions made by the Mexican government since 2022 to decongest Mexico City International Airport (AICM) and boost Felipe Angeles Airport (AIFA). Since 2022, the Mexican government has implemented actions such as mandatory transfer of cargo operations to AIFA and reduction of time slots at AICM. These measures, aimed at improving safety and efficiency of the Mexican aviation sector, have been interpreted by the U.S. DOT as a violation of the 2015 bilateral air transport agreement. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has been forceful in his warning, pointing out that the U.S. will reject flight requests from Mexico if their concerns about access of their airlines to the Mexican market are not addressed. Additionally, Mexican airlines will be required to present schedules of all their U.S. operations, and any charter flight from Mexico landing on U.S. territory must have approval starting in October. The most drastic measure, and the one that has generated the most concern, is the possible revocation of the strategic alliance between Delta and Aeromexico, a vital agreement for both companies and for connectivity between both countries. The impact of these restrictions is considerable. The U.S. market represents approximately 70% of international tourists who travel to or from Mexico. The potential dissolution of the Delta-Aeromexico alliance could result in significant traveler loss and affect jobs on both sides of the border. Although the main focus of these measures seems to be passenger transport, the implications for logistics and the supply chain are not minor. The transfer of cargo operations to AIFA already generated adjustments, and any limitation in general air capacity could impact the efficiency of goods transport, directly affecting international trade. This scenario adds to a series of commercial and diplomatic disputes between Mexico and the U.S., which include discussions about tariffs, drug fighting, and migration. The Mexican aviation industry, through the National Chamber of Air Transport (Canaero), has expressed concern about the high impact of these measures on connectivity and sector competitiveness, calling for bilateral dialogue to prioritize passengers and economic development. It's crucial to remember that Mexico barely recovered Category 1 in U.S. aviation standards in September 2023, after 28 months of degradation. This new escalation threatens to impose a new straitjacket on Mexican airlines, further complicating a sector seeking to consolidate and expand. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has declared that there are "no reasons" to restrict flights from Mexico to the United States and that they will wait for official notification to analyze the exact measures. However, tension is palpable and the need for a diplomatic resolution is urgent to avoid greater damage to the economy and bilateral relations. The situation underscores the economic interdependence between both countries and the importance of maintaining open and constructive communication channels to resolve disputes that, if not properly addressed, can have far-reaching consequences for logistics, commerce, and transportation in the region.