Mexico and Import Freight: Navigating the Global Logistics Storm

2025 has started with a complex scenario for logistics in Mexico. Unlike the enthusiasm experienced during 2024 due to the nearshoring boom, this year the landscape looks more reserved. The reason: a new wave of trade tensions between the United States and China that is shaking the foundations of import freight, especially for Mexican logistics operators. In the first four months of the year, many companies in the sector report drops in the volume of goods moved between 5% and 20%. This slowdown contrasts sharply with the 22% growth the sector experienced in 2024, when investments were made in infrastructure, personnel, and technology to capitalize on the industrial relocation movement. What's happening with import freight? The answer lies in the political and commercial back-and-forth of the leading countries in the global economy. Donald Trump's return to power in the U.S. brought new trade frictions, reviving tariffs and tensions that directly affect import freight. Although many of these tariffs have not yet been formally implemented, the announcement of possible changes has already generated enough uncertainty to slow down key logistics decisions. Fear has become a silent but powerful barrier. Many companies have decided to pause their imports amid doubts about how their goods will be treated when crossing the border. This impacts both logistics operators and freight agents who see their yards and routes empty, and their logistics contracts on pause. Most affected sectors. The automotive industry heads the list of most affected sectors. In particular, suppliers that do not meet T-MEC requirements face difficulties continuing to export without penalties. Additionally, steel and aluminum—fundamental materials in many production chains—are under new restrictions, which makes import freight from various international markets more expensive and slower. This environment not only makes transportation more expensive, it also reduces the cash flow of logistics clients. As a Kuehne+Nagel spokesperson explains, tariffs make exporters pay first and wait later, generating a direct impact on logistics operators' operations. Pressure also comes from Asia. But not all the problem originates in the United States. The resurgence of U.S. demand for Chinese products has also generated an overload on maritime routes from Asia, causing an accelerated increase in container costs. The Mexican Association of Freight Agents (Amacarga) estimates that prices could double this same year. This increase in container demand from Asia places Mexico in a complicated competitive position. Mexican companies must now compete with giants for access to ship spaces, which not only makes import freight more expensive but also slows down the general flow of goods. "The problem is not just the cost, it's availability," explains Amacarga. With few containers available, shipping companies can negotiate with the highest bidder. This dynamic has generated a "tug of war" that puts many companies at a disadvantage, forcing them to pay much higher prices to move their merchandise. An opportunity amid the storm. Despite this complicated panorama, Mexico can still find opportunities. Nearshoring, although more contained today, remains a strategic bet in the medium and long term. Companies that adapt quickly, improve their processes, diversify their suppliers, and optimize their supply chains will be the ones that manage to stay afloat in this volatile environment. For logistics operators, this is the time to strengthen relationships with clients, offer greater transparency in their import freight, and generate value through efficiency and resilience. Those who can operate with flexibility, even under changing conditions, will gain confidence in an increasingly selective market. Additionally, the boost to the pharmaceutical and national manufacturing industry proposed by the current Mexican government could partially compensate for the drop in import volumes. This opens the possibility of developing a more robust internal logistics network that complements international movements. Adapting is the only strategy. 2025 will not be the year of exponential growth, but it can be the year of logistics maturity. Uncertainty, new tariffs, and the increase in freight costs will not disappear soon. But those who understand the changes and prepare from now will be able to even strengthen their position when the environment stabilizes. Import freight will continue to be a key indicator of Mexico's logistics health. Today more than ever, understanding its evolution is not just the task of operators, but of the entire business ecosystem. At Control Terrestre, we remain committed to providing logistics solutions adapted to this new global context. Resilience, transparency, and innovation are our pillars to help you navigate this storm with a steady course.