Mexican Exports Grow in July, but Trade Balance Shows Warning Signs: What Does It Mean for Your Business?

By: María Gamba $56.708 billion dollars. That's the figure that marked the value of Mexican exports in July 2025, according to the latest Inegi report. Sounds impressive, right? Annual growth of 4% is always good news... but why then did the trade balance close with a deficit of $17 million? In a context where the United States tightens with new tariff policies and global trade reorganizes, these figures are not just statistics: they affect your costs, your routes, and even your supply decisions. Let's break it down with a practical approach: what happened, why it matters, and what you can do as a company to not fall behind. What happened in July with Mexican foreign trade? 📌 Exports grew, but not all equally: +5.2% in non-oil exports, while oil exports fell -23%. Manufacturing continues to be the engine: Industrial machinery and equipment: +28.7% Professional and scientific equipment: +17% Electronics: +10.2% Automotive in trouble: -7% overall, with a 9.2% drop toward the US (critical data for sector companies!). Agricultural and fishing: -5.6%. 📌 Imports also rose: $56.724 billion, +1.7% annually. Intermediate goods (what you need to produce): +2.5%. Capital goods (machinery): -2.2%. 📌 The final result? A deficit of $17 million, the first after two months of surplus. Why is there a deficit if we export more? Three words: tariffs, oil, and cars. The US hardened its tariff policy, affecting value chains, especially in automotive manufacturing. Oil exports continue to fall, and that hits the balance hard. Although manufacturing rose, the automotive sector—key in the Mexico-US relationship—contracted. What does this mean for your company? It's not a distant issue: if you depend on imported inputs, costs may rise. If you export, pressure from tariffs and logistics disruptions will continue. 💡 Three key impacts you should anticipate: Longer delivery times at border crossings due to tariff and regulatory reviews. Greater volatility in costs, due to tariff adjustments and exchange rate fluctuation. Pressure on automotive and electronics chains, with possible delays or parts shortages. So... how do you prepare? ✅ Diversify markets: Growth outside the US was +12.2%. Looking toward Europe, South America, and Asia is no longer optional. ✅ Review your nearshoring strategy: Relocation continues to be a trend, but with risks. Evaluate suppliers and strengthen logistics contracts. ✅ Strengthen your transportation risk management: Theft, blockades, tariffs... you need total visibility and contingency plans. Growth yes, but with risks you must manage Mexican foreign trade is growing, but it's no longer enough to export more: now you need to export better, safer, and with plans against global uncertainty. At Control Terrestre, we help your cargo cross borders without surprises: real-time monitoring, regulatory compliance, and contingency plans for every scenario. 📩 Let's talk today and strengthen your supply chain against the new challenges of international trade If you want to receive more advice, trends, and solutions to keep your operations safe and efficient, subscribe to our newsletter and stay one step ahead in logistics.