Key Consequences of Tariff Adjustments Between China and the U.S.

The recent tariff movements and export restrictions between China and the United States have raised trade tensions to levels that directly impact global supply chains. These decisions not only alter prices but also reconfigure routes, sourcing strategies, and operational risks for logistics companies, manufacturers, and global operators.

Decline in trade volume towards the U.S.

In September 2025, Chinese exports to the United States decreased by approximately27% year-on-year.AP NewsThis shows that American consumers and companies are reacting to higher costs and restrictive policies, forcing many supplies to seek alternative markets.

For Mexican companies participating in chains with Chinese inputs, this decline implies:

• Lower availability of key materials imported from China.
• Possible increase in prices of raw materials that depend on Asian inputs.
• Longer waiting times and transportation costs if sources must be relocated.

Export restrictions on critical minerals and increased cost of inputs

China has implemented export controls on rare earths, related equipment, and technology.fredlaw.com+1These decisions have repercussions especially in industries such as electronics, defense, renewable energy, and automotive.

Relevant consequences:

• Companies that depend on these inputs to manufacture products (e.g., magnets, sensors, batteries) face shortages and higher costs.
• Some production lines could stop if inputs are not available on time or within a profitable margin.
• Increased interest in diversifying suppliers outside of China (the "China+1" model).

Global chain realignment and the "China+1" effect

Faced with tariff pressure, many companies are migrating part of their production and sourcing to alternative countries such as Mexico, Vietnam, India, or Southeast Asia. A recent study on the reconfiguration of global chains shows that, while China remains strong in many upstream segments, other countries are gaining ground as intermediate manufacturing locations.arXiv

For companies in Mexico, this can represent an opportunity: to assume more stages of the value that were previously carried out in China. But it also means competing with new poles and adopting better technology, traceability, and logistics efficiency.

Increase in deadlines, inventories, and costs due to delays

An academic research indicates that delays in international deliveries have increased on averageabout 21 daysfor inputs from China between 2018 and 2024.arXivThis deterioration in times implies that companies:

• Must increase safety inventories to reduce the risk of shortages.
• Face higher financial costs for maintaining extra stock.
• Reduce their operational flexibility: less ability to react to changes in demand.

Inflation, increase in final prices, and pressure on the consumer

With more expensive inputs and additional tariffs, many production or import costs are passed on to the final price. This generates:

• Increased prices of technological, electrical, automotive products and parts that depended on Chinese inputs.
• Lower purchasing power of the consumer.
• Risk that sellers or distributors cut margins to maintain competitiveness.

Regulatory volatility and regulatory risks

Tariffs and controls can change rapidly with political decisions, which creates a volatile regulatory environment. For example:

• The U.S. announced100% tariffson additional Chinese products starting November 1, 2025.fredlaw.com
• China responded with export restrictions on critical minerals and technologies.Reuters+1

For logistics companies, this means they must be prepared to adapt quickly: reclassify tariff items, adjust routes, modify agreements with suppliers.

Emerging strategic opportunities

Although tariff changes bring risks, they also open up opportunities:

• Mexican companies can capture more manufacturing transferred from China to North America.
• Integrate more regional supply chains (Mexico–U.S.) to reduce exposure to international tariffs.
• Adopt traceability technologies, real-time visibility, and logistics resilience to differentiate themselves from companies that remain aligned with China.

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